Brazil’s 2020 second corn crop, which represents about 70% of the total production and accounts for the bulk of the export program, is already being harvested in south-central states. Production is smaller, however, since the crop was planted later than normal and because rains have been irregular in several states over the last three months.

Earlier this week, AgRural cut its production estimate for the third consecutive time, and further cuts are likely in early July, when a new revision will be released. With a smaller crop, a still strong real against the dollar (despite the recent appreciation) and a heated domestic demand, Brazil is exporting less corn in 2020, after the massive record seen last year. Farmers have already sold more than half of their production, but now are more cautious in their approach to the market, making the export trends even harder to read.

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