BLOG | Brazil’s total corn crop may reach unprecedented 107.3 mln T

Brazil’s total corn crop may reach unprecedented 107.3 mln T

22 de abril 2021 | ,

 

 

Brazil’s 2020/2021 total corn crop could reach a record of 107.3 million tonnes, according to the average of 11 analysts polled by Reuters on Tuesday, even as the country’s second corn crop was planted outside the ideal climate window.

If the average of forecasts is confirmed, Brazil’s total production will have grown 4.6% from last season, according to government estimates, driven by an expansion of area bigger than 1 million hectares (2.4 million acres).

Despite the projection showing growers may set a new record for corn production, the market is apprehensive about potential losses given the fact that Brazil’s second corn crop, which represents the bulk of output, may receive less rain than needed to develop after planting delays.

Consultancy AgRural, for example, revised its output estimate down by 3 million tonnes, to 103.4 million tonnes, which is the lowest figure in the poll.

The average of forecasts also represents a drop of 900,000 tonnes in comparison with a survey conducted by Reuters in February with the same forecasters.

“Our main (output forecast) cuts were made in relation to Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, which have had practically no rain since March,” said AgRural analyst Daniele Siqueira. “And although they need rain though May, some areas in these states have already experienced losses,” she said.

 

SourceTotal cornPrior forecast
Production (mln of tns)Area (mln of ha)Output (mln of tns)Area (mln of ha)
AgRural103.419.4106.419.1
Céleres108.0620.04108.420.041
Conab108.9619.71105.519.09
Cogo109.119.6106.319.152
Datagro109.3119.7411019.618
IHS Markit10419.8108.619.7
Safras & Mercado112.8120.75113.4620.19
StoneX105.0619.29110.2219.45
Refinitiv105.619105.218.9
Rabobank10519.210719.2
USDA109109
average107.319.65108.219,44
Highest estimate112.8120.75113.4620,19
Smallest estimate103.419105.218,9
2019/20 (Govt)102.58102.52
Avg vs 2019/20204.6%5.54%

 

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