SMALLEST IN 3 YEARS

11 de fevereiro 2019 | AgRural

Soybean production cut to 112.5 mmt after hot, dry January
Irregular rains and above-than-normal temperatures throughout January resulted in a new cut in Brazil’s soybean production estimate, as AgRural repeatedly warned over the last few weeks. The 2018/19 crop production is now seen at 112.5 million metric tons, 4.3 million metric tons down from the previous estimate, released on Jan 9, and 8.8 million metric tons down from the forecast released on Nov 30. The new production forecast is based on an area of 35.9 million hectares and an average yield of 3.137 metric tons per hectare – the lowest since 2015/16.

A 4.5 mmt cut in early January…
The first cut, made in early January, from 121.4 million to 116.9 million metric tons, was a result of hot, dry conditions seen in December, when areas planted in September with early maturity varieties were filling pods. The most affected states were Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso.

…and a 4.3 mmt reduction now in February
Areas planted in October have performed better than those planted earlier, but not as well as expected by farmers, since weather conditions in January, when most of them were filling pods, were far from ideal in several states. That resulted in a new cut of 4.3 million metric tons now in February, to 112.5 million metric tons. All producing states had their average yields reduced, except for Rio Grande do Sul, Pará and Rondônia.

AgRural will release a new production forecast in early March.

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