Brazil is no longer expected to harvest a record 2021/22 soybean crop, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Thursday, as hot dry weather in southern states knocked 11 million tonnes off its crop forecast.
AgRural now sees Brazil’s crop at 133.4 million tonnes, down from a forecast of 144.7 million. Brazil’s last crop cycle produced a record 137.3 million tonnes of soybeans, the firm said.
The outlook adds to growing signs that the La Nina weather pattern could leave a large swathe of South America too parched to reach its potential grains output this year.
Earlier this week, consultancy StoneX also said it no longer expects Brazil to harvest a record soybean crop, trimming its estimated output to 134 million tonnes.
“Drought and the high temperatures seen in southern Brazil and in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul state since early November have hit the 2021/22 soybean crop heavily,” AgRural said in a statement.
Brazil’s average soybean yield is now expected to fall to its lowest since 2015/16 at 54.8 bags per hectare, the consultancy said.
The southern state of Parana, one of Brazil’s major soy states, has been the hardest hit, AgRural said, adding that it has also slashed its output projections for the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul.
“In the rest of the country, the crop is well established and high yields are expected in (the top-producing state of) Mato Grosso, where initial areas are already being harvested,” AgRural said.